Feb. 9, 2010
By Adam Lucas
It's always a little perilous to peer into the Mailbag when things go poorly. This week, though, kudos to the Tar Heel fans who took time to email us. Most of the notes we received were thoughtful, rational and reasonable. Considering that's not always the case even when the Tar Heels are ranked number-one in the nation, that's good news. Fans are clearly aware Carolina is playing poorly, but they seem more interested in identifying the problems rather than assigning blame.
Two quick notes: first, we've been telling you Friday's Celebration of a Century event will be available online. Details are here. That's the only planned video coverage of what should be a fun evening.
You might remember the Mailbag was on hiatus in November and December because of interviews and research for the official 100 years of Carolina basketball book. That book is now available for purchase. It's something worthy of a spot on your coffee table and I think you'll enjoy reading it.
With the NBA all-star game being held during the same weekend as the celebration and no Carolina players being selected to play, have any current NBA Carolina alum committed to attending the celebration?
Radames Vazquez
Meriden, CT
Travel plans are always tricky, and many NBA players make plans for the All-Star weekend well in advance. That's why Roy Williams scheduled the pro alumni game for September, when everyone could attend. It's still possible you will see a few current NBA players/coaches show up this weekend. Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson will definitely be there Saturday, when their jerseys are honored during pregame (make sure to be in your seats at least 15 minutes before the 4 p.m. tipoff) of the NC State game. Tyler Hansbrough, who has been battling an inner ear infection that may include vertigo, will be in town Wednesday for his jersey retirement and hopes to stay for Friday's Celebration of a Century. Charlotte Bobcats assistant coach Phil Ford will play in Friday's old-timers game.
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What do you think of Carolina playing a 2-3 zone defense? They team is big, but not quick and staying in front the ball has been a problem all season for them; however, the trio of Davis, Thompson and Henson, with Henson in the middle would put 2 solid shot blockers under the basket and prevent a lot of the easy layups. In addition, you would have Ginyard defending the perimeter with either Drew or Strickland.
Scott McFaden
Charlottesville, VA
As with any zone question, we have to start with the obligatory note that Roy Williams doesn't like zone, doesn't like to coach zone, and doesn't like to play much zone. Keep all hands and feet inside the car, remain seated while it is in motion, etc.
The Tar Heels have played more voluntary zone defense this season than any other season in the Williams era (in past years, it's largely been used only as a last-gasp change of pace or to protect a player in foul trouble). It will be interesting to see if the zone is used more liberally in rematches with players who have burned Carolina man-to-man--such as Wake Forest's Ish Smith.
Sideline reporters speak to both coaches at halftime, but it seems that Roy Williams is never interviewed on-camera - the reporter summarizes his comments after the second half has begun. What's the story behind the coach's halftime camera-shyness?
Charles Held
Mount Holly, NC
Williams has a long-standing policy of preferring not to do TV interviews when he's coming off the court at halftime, because he doesn't want the intensity of the game to carry over to his interview and risk saying something he regrets. The going-into-the-locker-room interview is usually the one that's shown live. Williams does usually speak with the sideline reporter off-camera near the start of the second half, and the reporter usually summarizes that conversation for the broadcast.
Can you expound upon the grading system that Coach Williams uses to determine playing time? Coach Williams mentioned that "Ginyard grades out better than Strickland every time" after the Virginia game. Does this grading include both practices and games? Because I find it hard to believe that Ginyard has graded out better than Strickland "every single time" unless the Clemson and N.C. State games never actually happened.
Steve
Raleigh, NC
We received several emails like the one from Steve, with questions about the way the grading system operates. Those who think Williams is coddling Ginyard are wrong--the head coach was very open last week when asked about Ginyard's frustration (the senior has been notably more tight-lipped with the media this season, although I thought he gave a perfect summation of the recent games in the concluding line to this story).
"I think that seniors a lot of times put a lot more pressure on themselves and you have to be concerned about that," Williams said. "You have to be concerned about their psyche. But also, I'm tired of that. It's put up or shut up time...I get tired of worrying about somebody's psyche. Play the dadgum game. That's what it boils down to."
Williams uses the same grading system he learned from Dean Smith. A grading session includes the entire coaching staff and can last between two-and-a-half hours and three-and-a-half hours. It's a complex evaluation of every possession on multiple aspects, including defense, assists/turnovers (remember Coach Smith always talking about, "assists the way we keep them"), screens and more. A player can receive credit for something as subtle as making a strong move to the basket, even if it doesn't result in points. A negative could be failure to hustle, forgetting a play (this is where Strickland sometimes is hit with some negatives that fans don't see) or failure to get back on defense (Will Graves was yanked Thursday night after failing to get back twice in the game's opening minutes).
Also, keep in mind that Ginyard has four years worth of history with Williams that suggests he's going to do things like dive on the floor for a loose ball, as he did Thursday night at Virginia Tech. If the offensive production is essentially a draw--and right now, it's close--Ginyard is going to get the nod for plays like that. It was also interesting that the Tar Heels played Ginyard and Strickland together in the backcourt briefly against the Hokies. Considering the jumbled lineups still being used, almost anything is possible. John Henson has seen more time recently as a power forward (he didn't fare poorly defensively against Virginia Tech's rugged Jeff Allen, which is encouraging, but there are times when he'll be physically overmatched at that spot), the Wears shuttle between small forward and power forward and the backcourt is constantly shifting. Williams is waiting for someone to make himself indispensable. The first player--especially a freshman--to do that will probably create the first big lineup shift.
Incidentally, the grading session for Maryland was the most laborious of the year, as only one player qualified for the game's defensive award, which requires a 2:1 ratio of good defensive plays to bad plays. The winner, for the first time in his UNC career, was Henson. Not surprisingly, only three players had positive ratios of good plays to bad after Maryland's 92-point performance.
I was just wondering what is UNC's assist to turnover ratio as a team this year? And how does it unfavorably/favorably compare to other teams in the past. It seems to me that is this team's greatest weakness outside of there confidence.
Brad
El Segundo, Calif.
The Tar Heels sit just over 1:1 for the season in assist/turnover ratio, with 393 assists and 373 turnovers. But that figure is actually well under 1:1 in ACC games, with 105 assists and 130 turnovers. That 0.8 ratio is 9th in the ACC. Since turnovers were officially charted beginning during the 1981-82 season, Carolina has never had a team with more turnovers than assists. The closest were the 2002 team (16 more assists than turnovers), the 1999 team (11 more assists) and the 1990 team (10 more assists).
At this point, I personally think the statistic that best illustrates Carolina's 2010 struggles is turnover margin. In ACC play, the Tar Heels rank dead last at -3.75, a healthy distance from 11th-place Miami (-2.56). That's a measurement of two forms of struggles this year: too many turnovers, especially of the unforced variety, and not enough forced turnovers. The only season in the Williams era in which Carolina has been in the negative in that category is 2006.
Brownlow's Down Low
I wouldn't have any coach other than Roy Williams. However, I am struck by how other coaches will call timeouts to stop a run, while Roy will let our team absorb the run. Can Brownlow do an analysis of UNC's point differential this season before and after timeouts are called by Roy versus opposing coach timeouts?
Bill Jackson
Atlanta, GA
Lauren writes: It's worth mentioning that any timeout - whether it's called by the media, the opposing coach or Roy Williams - allows both staffs to coach. Also, this team's problems extend beyond a few in-game adjustments or even the alleged run-stopping timeout. However, this team has been unusually poor at responding to runs - not typical of Carolina - and he has been calling more timeouts than usual. But even with experienced teams, when Williams has something to say, he will call timeout.
I will look at a few ACC examples. Georgia Tech went on a 7-0 run and a Williams timeout was followed by a 3-0 Georgia Tech spurt. In the second half, it was Paul Hewitt scrambling to use timeouts. The sequence went:
5-0 Carolina run (Timeout, GT)
7-0 Carolina run (Timeout, GT)
0-0 (Media timeout)
3-3 (Timeout, GT)
10-4 Carolina run (That run was ended by a media timeout with 1:31 to go and Carolina holding a 69-67 lead.)
Opposing coaches have called 23 timeouts to "stop" Carolina runs that totaled 132-75. Carolina outscored the teams after those timeouts by a total of 54-52. Of the 23 timeouts, six went to the next timeout with no scoring. Nine resulted in Carolina outscoring the opponent. The most Carolina was outscored was 8-2 (Wake Forest). Nine of Williams's 15 ACC timeouts (not counting late-game situations) have been called after Carolina was outscored by a combined 89-51. Carolina outscored opponents 31-28 before the next timeout. Five of Williams's timeouts resulted in no score before a media timeout and another five were followed by Carolina being outscored. The biggest run Carolina went on after a timeout and before the next one was 4-0, twice.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of five books on Carolina basketball, including the just-released book on the 2009 national title, One Fantastic Ride. Get real-time UNC sports updates from the THM staff on Twitter.
