March 15, 2010
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
North Carolina (16-16) will open its sixth appearance in the NIT in Carmichael Arena against William and Mary (22-10) on Tuesday night. The Tar Heels are the No. 4 seed and William and Mary is the No. 5 seed. The Tribe is coached by former Tar Heel Tony Shaver. This is Roy Williams' first appearance in the NIT but overall, Carolina is 9-4 in the event, including winning the title in 1971. Carolina leads the all-time series with William and Mary, 17-3. The Tar Heels have won five straight in the series and ten of the last 11.
Game Time: North Carolina vs. William and Mary, 9:30 PM
Last Time: Carolina beat William and Mary 105-66 on January 2, 2005 in Chapel Hill. Carolina shot 57.6% for the game and 65.4% in the second half. Sean May led all scorers with 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting and added seven rebounds. Jawad Williams had 19 points, Rashad McCants added 15 and Marvin Williams had 14. Raymond Felton narrowly missed a double-double with 8 points and 12 assists. William and Mary was led by Corey Cofield with 16 points and Nate Loehrke, who also had 16. Hawley Smith added 12 points.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage begins at 8:30 PM.
Storylines
Threes, not twos: Going into the game in Cameron Indoor Stadium a little over a week ago, Roy Williams told his team that the game would have to be played in twos rather than threes, considering that is a large part of Duke's offense. Duke came out and hit 7-of-13 threes in the first half; nearly half of Duke's made field goals were from beyond the arc in that half. Duke combined to make 17-of-39 threes in the two meetings with Carolina this season and scored over a third of their points against Carolina from beyond the arc. In the first meeting, over 42% of Duke's points were from three. Some of the looks were well-contested, like Jon Scheyer's late three, but far too many were open. That remained the case in Durham in the second game. William and Mary is obviously not the caliber team as Duke, but the Tribe makes Duke's reliance on the three look like nothing. William and Mary is 4th in the country in terms of three-point offense, generating 39.4% of their points from three. Nearly half of all of William and Mary's shot attempts are three-pointers and nearly 40% of their points come from beyond the arc. The Tribe shoots 31.8% from three in losses and 36.8% in wins, averaging 9.3 made threes in losses and 8.5 in wins, shooting six fewer in wins. The biggest difference for William and Mary in wins versus losses seems to be that the Tribe scores just 15.5% of its points from the foul line and 44.2% from three in losses compared to 22.9% from the foul line and 36.9% from three in wins. The Tribe takes nearly half its shots from beyond the arc regardless but it is over half in losses compared to wins.
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A better comparison might be a team like College of Charleston, which shoots a ton of threes. The Cougars made 13-of-32 in their win over Carolina and scored nearly half their points from three. Valparaiso scored 47% of its points from beyond the arc, making 12-of-27. Gardner-Webb made 15 threes and those accounted for over 62% of their points against Carolina. William and Mary has made 35% of its threes this year, a very good percentage despite the high number they attempt. Opponents seem to be getting swept up into the three-point bonanza; 19 of the Tribe's 32 opponents have attempted 20 or more three's and William and Mary is 15-4 in those games. Carolina has made 33.6% of its threes this year despite averaging just 14.2 attempts per game. No Carolina loss is created equally, and the Tar Heels have gone from taking too many threes in losses (as many as 26 against Wake Forest) to too few (a season-low five attempts at Duke). Carolina is 5-13 in its last 18 games, however, and in those five wins, 22.4% of Carolina's points came from three and Carolina made 35.9% of its shots compared to 27.3% of its threes in losses. Carolina has to take the best shots it can get and somehow limit the Tribe to contested looks only.
At The Game
Listening to the Tar Heel Sports network at the game: The in-stadium frequency in the Smith Center will be FM 92.7. That station will have a non-delayed feed of WCHL 1360, the local affiliate.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
ESPN coverage: The game will be available on ESPN. Brad Nessler and Jimmy Dykes will have the call.
Names To Know
John Henson: Most of Carolina's freshmen, who have seen limited action as a unit this year, have not had that much of an impact on wins and losses in terms of swings in their statistics. Despite Henson's role only increasing fairly recently, he already has shown that. His swing of shooting 16.3 percentage points lower in losses than in wins shows that. But ever since he has seen an increased role (11 games ago), he has averaged more points in losses (9.8) than in wins (8.3) but has shot much better in wins (57.9%) than in losses (48.4%) and has averaged 10.7 rebounds in wins and 6.1 in losses. Henson has also shown his impact on the defensive end in blocks; he has averaged a steal and four blocks in three wins and less than a half a steal and 1.6 blocks in eight losses in that span. Carolina sorely missed the freshman last week; his 18 minutes against Georgia Tech due to foul trouble were his fewest since seeing just 16 at Maryland in February. Henson will have not be out-physicalled in a game against a team like William and Mary, but he will certainly be out-experienced and will have to make up for that.
Will Graves: After a 21-point outing against Florida State began a three-game stretch for Graves during which he averaged 16.7 points and made 11-of-24 three's, Graves has been in a slump in the last two games. Carolina had won two of those three games but lost its final two as Graves averaged just three points and made just 2-of-18 shots, 1-of-11 three's. Carolina drastically needs someone on the perimeter to make shots, and Graves has shown the most potential to be that person. Even in wins, Will Graves has the second-lowest shooting percentage among the main rotation. But Graves also takes more shots than all but one active Tar Heel. He also takes over 63% of his shots from three in Carolina's losses (despite making just 35%) compared to attempting just over 59% from outside the arc in 16 Carolina wins (and making 42.6 percent). And in Carolina's wins, his 61 attempts are nearly as many as Marcus Ginyard and Larry Drew II combined (70). In Carolina's losses, Graves has shot just 32.9% and has attempted just five fewer shots than Deon Thompson in one fewer game. And his 97 three-point attempts in those losses are more than Ginyard and Drew II combined (88). His 34 made three's account for over half of Carolina's makes in losses; it's clear that he will need some help in that area. But this will also be a tricky defensive game for Graves; the Tribe will take a lot of three's and don't run a conventional offense. Graves will need to be at his best on both ends.
Quinn McDowell: The 6-6 senior swingman shoots 49.3% from the floor and 42.6% from behind the arc, particularly impressive considering he is the second-leading scorer on the team at 13.9 points per game and also averages 4.3 rebounds. In the Tribe's 22 wins this year, McDowell has shot 51.6% from the floor and 50.7% from three, averaging 18.7 points per game. In their ten losses, he has averaged 13.4 points but has still shot 45.4% from the floor and 39.6% from three, averaging 2.1 made three's compared to 1.7 made three's in ten losses. It's hard to imagine a shooter like that having a slump, but he has been in one in the last three games, averaging 8.3 points but shooting just 35% from the floor and 18.2% form three (2-of-11). He has made as many as six three's in a game and as four or more in six games, including 8-of-18 in the Tribe's first two games, narrow losses at Connecticut and at Harvard. In wins over Wake and Maryland, he made 5-of-7 three's and 12-of-22 shots, averaging 21 points in both games. Both of those games were on the road and the hostile environment won't bother him.
David Schneider: The 6-3 senior guard is a three-point shooter, to be sure. He leads the team in made three's (92) and attempted three's (274), shooting 33.6% from three. But he also leads the team in scoring (15.3 points) and steals (47) and ranks second in both rebounds (6.0) and assists (89). He also leads the team in free throws made and attempted, meaning he's not just a one-dimensional scoring threat. He shoots over 80% from the foul line and is attempting 4.6 foul shots per game. Like McDowell, he has been in a bit of a slump the last two games, averaging 16 points but shooting just 9-of-28 (32.1%) and 7-of-20 from three. He was just 2-of-13 from the floor in the loss to Old Dominion and didn't get many open looks. But Schneider didn't play particularly well in the wins at Wake and Maryland, shooting just 6-of-24 and 2-of-14 from three, averaging 13.5 points. He did pull down ten rebounds against a very good Wake Forest rebounding group and added five at Maryland, but he added nine assists, four turnovers and five steals in those games. And still in William and Mary's wins, he has shot 39.7% and 36.9% from three, averaging 16.3 points, compared to 13.2 points and 26.9% shooting in losses. He has also made 3.3 of 11.4 three's in losses compared to 2.7 of 7.3 in wins. Over two-thirds of his shots are three's, but he still manages to get fouled, so Carolina needs to make sure it defends the crafty veteran very well.
Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
